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Cycle Turn Expectation Example *PIC*
By:Rick Ratchford (Analyst - AmazingAccuracy.com)
Date: Friday, 15 August 2008, 10:23 am

Here is another example of a strategy that is optionally employed when a short-term cycle turn is expected.

A few minutes ago I exited a Live Cattle position as it opened its day session and drop 100 points. The position was put on during the night session because of the following expectations:

1. In this scenario, the short-term cycle turn (FDate) was expected for 8/13. Looking at the daily chart, it was clear that 8/14 was a higher high than 8/13. Since 8/14 was within a single price bar of the expected date, and since the turn would have to occur then off the 8/14 bar or simply be a bust, this made the probability of a swing top that much more likely.

2. Price was just sitting there 'near the 8/14 high'. The risk of selling at this price point in the expectation that the 8/14 high would hold was low. So a sell was initiated and a stop-loss placed just above the 8/14 high.

Below is the time-stamp of my trade based on the FDate expectation discussed above. This FDate is on our weekly report, and the Sell Setup previously announced on our forum yesterday. While most setups are usually held for a few days or longer, I personally chose to take the quick 100 points rather than hold over the weekend, as I'm more day trader (and usually in the currencies).

Cheers!
:)
Rick