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1) Too many people trying to pick/call a bottom in the USD so it needs to break to new lows first before putting in an intermediate term bottom.
2) Too many people calling for a top in crude because it appears 'obvious' that oil has gone too far too fast. I think we see a spike higher severe enough to panic and roast all the premature shorts...then a meaningful intermediate term correction may finally set in.
3) Way too many people calling the advance in commodities a 'bubble'. Bubbles are rarely labelled as such until well after the peak has come and gone. Those trying to get short prematurely will provide the fuel that allows many of the components that comprise the CRB to continue rising for a good deal longer.
4) Gold will likely continue to build support and consolidate in the short term before launching into a new upleg over the next 6 months that should carry well into 2009. Negative real interest rates provide a very conducive climate for commodities, particularly the monetary metals (gold and silver). This scenario is unlikely to reverse as long as the Fed lacks the will to do more than 'talk' down inflation. And an interest rate increase (either to support the USD or fight inflation) just won't happen in the lead up to the US presidential election, if history is any measure.
5) The Gold/Oil ratio looks ready to turn in Gold's favor sometime in the short term (weeks to months). A sharp reversal here would provide a real boost to the precious metals stocks...a sector that on the whole has not kept pace with the rising POG, let alone exhibit the traditional leverage one expects from these companies in a rising market for the product they produce.
6) Broader markets (DJIA, SPX, etc.) are a mess and fraught with risk right now. They may indeed reach an oversold/panic bottom here at some point this year that provides for a meaningful bear market rally, but playing it successfully may be an entirely different matter.
All JMHO of course.
GLTA