boog commented that crude was going lower, that it had topped, and that we were are excedingly high levels. That might be true, but how do you determine what level is HIGH. When I started driving in the early 70's, my gas cost me about 60 cents / Big Canadian Gallon--today I'm paying 90 cents a litre my cost of gas has gone up 5 fold. Something has happened, I'm maybe misnaming it, but I call it inflation.
Blind Hog is right, our commodities are price according to supply/demand, but by taking a look at a timeframe in the past where there were similar tight supply conditions, it helps me get my head around where a possible target price could be. Crude might not go to 70 or 100 dollars a barrel, I'll agree with that, but I'll not catch myself saying that prices of $40 / barrel are excessively high, when $75 / barrel could be realistic if we can take inflation into account. (Perhaps we'll look back in 2 months and say $40 was a bargain, or $2.00 / gallon of unleaded was cheap--heaven forbid)
We traders all have ideas of where we think a price is very high or very low, and to come up with those ideas, we must compare todays price with some other time frame. Considering prices 5 or 10 or 30 years ago, and putting some value for inflation in the calculation is just the same, and although it is not the single criteria I use in considering a trade I ususally give it some thought.
Good discussion, and best of trades..

Trapper.